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| Photo by Gage Skidmore |
The Orange
County Register uses horror stories about child abuse deaths in
exactly the way Donald Trump uses horror stories about crimes committed by
immigrants.
Were there a hotline to which one could report “statistics
abuse,” the reporters who wrote the
Orange
County Register series
“Born
on Drugs” would have their rights to the calculator apps on their
phones terminated.
The Register’s
misleading use of data, combined with the resurrection of long-discredited
claims about drug use and child welfare, amount to “crack baby journalism” – a
revival of the sorts of hype and hysteria that reappear whenever the nation is
hit with a new “Worst Drug Plague Ever.”
But the Register also
has trouble coping with numbers. The
statistics it cites come without links, so sources can’t be checked and context
can’t be verified. Even the descriptions
of sources often are vague, crucial terms are not defined and time spans
covered can be unclear.
Most of the statistics revolve around child abuse
fatalities. Each is the worst form of tragedy and the only acceptable goal for
such fatalities is zero. But hyping the numbers only takes us farther from that
goal. Similarly, the goals of the Register journalists were noble.
But by encouraging a take-the-child-and-run approach to
child welfare, the Register’s
journalism increases the likelihood that there will be more such horrors. That’s because the real reason for the
horrors almost always is an overloaded system and a rush to remove more
children needlessly only overloads it more.
Those of us who are truly committed to child safety know
that the real numbers are bad enough, but real solutions often are
counterintuitive.
The
Big Lie of American child welfare
The Register takes
almost every number out of context, and almost every assertion about those
numbers is wrong. It’s all done in the
service of the
Big Lie of American child welfare: the claim that leaving children
in their own homes, or returning them there, is inherently risky while foster
care, for all its other problems, at least is safe.
So the Register
claims:
A
parent’s right to rear children without state involvement is in constant play
with a child’s right to be free from maltreatment. The … conflicting mandates
have been debated by those inside the system for decades.
None of that is true.
In fact:
● Family preservation is almost always the better option
because it is in the best interests of children; it is not a matter of “parents’
rights.”
● The “mandates” do not “conflict.” There is no conflict with child safety,
because in typical cases family preservation is the safer option – as can be
seen by multiple
studies and by California data the Register ignored.
So let’s go through the Register
stories, statistic by statistic
Misleading
statements about what happens
The Register tells
us:
More
than 2,200 children have suffered fatal and near-fatal incidents in California
since 2009.
 |
| Can you find the needles? |
Why use a figure that covers at least nine years? Because it
sounds worse than saying: In a state with 11 million children, an average of 244, or 0.002 percent
suffer fatal and near fatal incidents each year. Putting it that way also tells us that the
number of children who suffer such “incidents” – a term the Register never defines – are both 244
too many and also needles in a gigantic haystack. So figuring out which 244
children are in that sort of danger is not nearly as simple as the Register stories imply.
Notice also that the Register
has moved, without explanation, from discussing deaths allegedly linked to
parental substance abuse to all forms of fatal and near fatal “incidents” –
leaving readers to assume that all these incidents were caused by drug using
parents.
(Later, when the Register
offers an estimate of the number of children under 5 who are said to have
died due to “drug exposure” it averages out to about than nine per year – in a
state with at least 2.4 million children under
age 5. That’s 0.0004 percent.)
Misleading
statements about where it happens
The Register continues:
The
overwhelming majority of these tragedies — more than 90 percent, according to a
Southern California News Group analysis of data from California Department of
Social Services — occurred while the children were in the care of their own
parents and legal guardians.
Wow, sounds like a child’s own home must be the most
dangerous place in the world, doesn’t it?
But what the Register
doesn’t tell us is that at least 95
percent of California children live with at least one parent or a
legal guardian. So this statistic really
tells us that, when it comes to children who suffer “fatal and near fatal
incidents” they are probably safer in their own homes than elsewhere.
And in fact, this is confirmed by the mass of research showing that foster care itself
has a terrible track record for safety, with study after study finding abuse in
one-quarter to one-third of foster homes. The record of group homes and
institutions is even worse.
The Register
offers up its misleading statistics about safety right after telling us
something else:
While
the number of kids in California’s child protection system plunged almost 50
percent between 2000 and 2018, the number of infants — younger than one year —
shot up more than 9 percent.
Thus, readers are left to conclude: Aha! Foster care
plummeted and now all these children are dying.
Except: At no point does the Register offer data indicating that the rate of deaths and near
deaths was lower back when California had so many more children in foster care.
In fact, it is almost impossible to reliably measure trends
using child welfare fatality data. One reason is one for which we should all be
grateful: Even in a state the size of California, the number of such horrible
tragedies is low enough that is hard to draw conclusions. Also:
Determining whether a death is due to abuse, neglect or accident is surprisingly
subjective. (But, just for the
record, the only
data I could find suggest that the figure fluctuates from year to year with
no discernable relationship to the aggressiveness of child protective
services.)
As
foster care declines in California, child safety improves
But here’s what we do know: A far more reliable measure of
safety is the rate of alleged recurrence of maltreatment. That is, of all the cases in which workers
declare an allegation of abuse or neglect “substantiated” in what percentage is
there another “substantiated” allegation within 12 months. During those same years in which foster care
“plummeted” that measure improved
in California by 28 percent. So as
foster care declined, California children got safer.
That is not as counterintuitive as it may sound. The more
that workers are overloaded with false allegations, trivial cases, cases in
which family poverty is confused with neglect and
all the other cases that don’t belong in the system, the less time they have to
find those needles in the haystack. So
again, it’s advocates of family preservation who are the true supporters of
child safety. In contrast, the hype and
hysteria offered up by the Register
is likely to make all children less safe.
As for the claim that from 2000 to 2018 “the number of infants — younger than one
year — shot up more than 9 percent,” that’s an increase of about
one-half-of-one-percent per year – a pretty weird definition of “shot up.”
False
claims about reunification
Over and over, the Register
stories suggest some kind of fanatical devotion on the part of the system to
family preservation at children’s expense.
So a social worker tells the Register “California is a reunification state,” adding:
“That
was embedded in me through my education process. They’re always going to work
towards reuniting families, because there’s this belief that that’s better for
the child overall. I don’t always agree with that.”
But it’s not just a belief; it’s a fact, documented in study
after study showing that in typical cases, including cases involving
substance use, children typically fare better in their own homes than in foster
care.
But the social worker can stop worrying. The data belie the
rhetoric. California is not “a reunification state.”
A
record that is resolutely average
For starters, even with the “plummeting” rate of foster care
placement since 2000, California’s record is resolutely average. As of 2017, the most recent year for which
comparative figures are available, the rate at which children were trapped in
foster care in California was indeed below the national average – by all of five percent, even
when rates of child poverty are factored in.
And California’s rate of placement was more than 30 percent higher than
New York, another large, relatively progressive state where individual counties
run child welfare.
So in fact, it’s back when California had proportionately
far more children in foster care, the time the Register seems to view as the good old days, that California was an
outlier -- and children were less safe.
As for reunification: In federal fiscal year 2017, again the
most recent year for which comparative data are available, nationwide 49
percent of the children who left foster care were reunified. In California it was 51 percent –
hardly suggestive of a fanatical dedication to reunification. And again, California’s results have come
with improvements in child safety.
The Register goes
on to offer up a toxic mix of extreme horror stories and stats that have almost
nothing to do with the horrors.
So after describing in detail the suffering of an infant
“born on drugs,” the Register goes on
to tell us that “Nearly 50,000 drug-exposed infants have been born in
California since 2000, a parade of human suffering that has touched families,
communities and taxpayers.” They put the
figure for 2017 at 5,050. Again, they
leave out context. The figure is under
two percent of all births in California that year.
And, of course, “drug exposed” is not defined. We are meant to assume the worst, of course.
But it actually can mean anything from giving birth in the middle of a home
meth lab to smoking marijuana to ease the pain of labor. It also can include
cases in which the mothers are prescribed legal drugs such as methadone and
buprenorphine as part of a program to treat addiction to opioids.
But the clincher, the one journalists who seek to fan the
flames of take-the-child-and-run hysteria love most, begins in the Register series with the subhead “Deadly
benefit of the doubt?” and continues:
It’s
unclear how often the push to keep families together ends badly.
Actually that’s not true.
As noted earlier, as California has done more to keep
families together, the rate at which children “known to the system” are abused
or neglected again has declined, indicating that whatever push there may be to
keep families together actually has made children safer.
The
most misleading statistic in child welfare
But the Register reporters
ignore all that, and all those studies on how children in typical cases
typically fare better in their own homes. Instead they rely on the single most
misleading statistic in all of child welfare – the one about the proportion of
horror stories involving children “known to the system.” So the Register
tells us:
[S]ome
three-quarters of child deaths due to abuse and neglect tracked by the state of
California – and some 60 percent of serious injuries – happened in families
that had previous contact with the child welfare system. Examples
of the system backfiring can be horrific.
Indeed they can. Examples of undocumented workers committing
terrible crimes also can be horrific. That’s why Donald Trump uses them at
every opportunity to draw broad, sweeping - and false - conclusions.
The Register does
exactly the same thing. As is discussed in
the column for WitnessLA, the
requisite horror stories are followed immediately by:
The
wisdom of California’s goal – keep families together even when parents struggle
with addiction – is called into stark relief by such tragedies.
No, it’s not. No more
than the wisdom of say “sanctuary cities” is “called into stark relief” by
Trump’s horror stories.
In fact, the wisdom of California’s goal, assuming there is
such a goal, is proven by the fact that overall, children are safer and more
children are spared the horrors of foster care itself.
If every effort to keep families together is “called into
question” by horror stories then no child ever should be kept in her or his own
home – because no system can avoid every horror story. And even that won’t work, because then you
still have all the horrors of foster care.
In fact, if any approach that leads to a horror story is off the table,
then there can’t be any foster care either – because sometimes children die in
foster care.
But of course that whole 77 percent figure is meant to leave
an impression of massive failure – almost as if 77 percent of the time
reunification leads to death or near death.
That’s because this figure leaves out another crucial
number.
In a typical year nearly 500,000 California children are
“involved with the child protection system” as, at a minimum, subjects of investigations. That's the blue in the pie chart above. Of
that number, roughly 188 died or nearly died.
That’s 0.04 percent. That's the red portion of the pie chart.
If it's hard to spot on a pie chart, imagine what it's like for caseworkers.
What
does “involved” with the system mean?
The Register also
offers up a misleading description of families “involved” with the system,
describing them as families “officials knew were problematic.” On the contrary, many of these children were
the subject of false allegations that were screened out at child abuse
hotlines. Not only did agencies not know
the families were supposedly “problematic,” they didn’t know them at all.
Most of the rest were determined to be unfounded. (And before anyone dredges up that old canard
about how “Well, unfounded doesn’t mean it was false, maybe the worker just
can’t prove it” look again at the data: The
only study I know of to second-guess these decisions found that, nationwide,
workers are two to six times more likely to wrongly “substantiate” an
allegation than to wrongly label it unfounded.
Oh, and workers don’t need proof to “substantiate” an allegation, their
own guess usually is enough.)
When a system is deluged with false reports, whether by
malicious spouses or neighbors, “mandated reporters” terrified of not reporting
cases they know are absurd, or simply well-meaning people who confuse a family’s
poverty with neglect or otherwise are mistaken, it is the system that’s problematic, not all those families.
Yet, among this huge number of allegations, The Register thinks that there’s a vast
family preservation conspiracy because an average of 188 per year - four one
hundredths of one percent - died.
Yes, some of those cases had files with more “red flags”
than a Soviet May Day parade. Most do not.
Many are indistinguishable from many of the other 499,812 children who
come to the attention of the system in some way every year.
So what, exactly, does the Register propose to do with the other 499,812 children? Take them all away – instead of just the 28,000 or so
California takes in a typical year? And
where, exactly would the Register
propose to put them all?
What the figure actually shows is that parents almost never
kill or nearly kill their children.
Those who do are those needles in a haystack. You are not going to find those needles by
trying to vacuum up the haystack with more reporting, more investigation more
foster care and assuming that every mother with a substance use problem is a
likely killer.
Toward
real solutions
So what can be done?
Here’s what they found does not work:
● The rate at which people report child abuse does not
contribute to more or fewer child abuse deaths.
● The rate at which a state screens in reports for
investigation does not contribute to more or fewer child abuse deaths.
● The rate at which a state takes children from their
parents does not contribute to more or fewer child abuse deaths.
What actually does contribute to child abuse deaths?
● High rates of poverty
● High rates of teen pregnancy
● Low rates of services to prevent child maltreatment.
And when the issue is substance abuse, what works? Exactly
what The New York Times suggested in
those groundbreaking editorials: Drug treatment, including medication-assisted
treatment, and help that is neither judgmental nor patronizing. One more thing that would help: Not assuming
that every parent who uses a substance, legal or illegal, is incapable of being
a good parent.
One of the editorial writers who worked on the Times series Jeneen Interlandi, summed
it up perfectly in a series of tweets.
She began
with this:
A
mother or a pregnant woman takes hard drugs, and we immediately sharpen the
knives. Hang her, shoot her, lock her up. At the very least, take her kids
away. Because what kind of mother does that?
What
if the answer to the question, "What kind of mother does that?" is,
"A mother who is just like you, except that she has substance use
disorder."
It looks as though the reporters at the Orange County Register were too busy on their own righteous indignation
high to consider that possibility. They
should be careful. That kind of high can be addictive.