The federal government has released its annual update to the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS), a database that attempts to track, among other things, entries into foster care, exits, and the number of children trapped in foster care on Sept. 30 of each year – known as the “snapshot number.” The data are labeled preliminary, as they are every year when first released. Though it's rare, in a few states revised numbers can be a few hundred higher or lower.
Nationally, when compared to FFY 2024, there is virtually no change in the entry or snapshot numbers. Either there was a slight increase or a slight decrease. We don’t know which, because this year, for the first time since 2022, Wyoming and Washington State finally got their acts together and submitted data. They were not counted in 2023 or 2024. So whether entries slightly increased or slightly decreased probably depends largely on what the actual numbers for those states were in 2024. The only thing we can be sure of is the “slightly” part. There may, however, have been a real, and disturbing, decline of roughly 10,000 in the number of children exiting foster care.
But, of course, the national figure hides wide variation among states.
Here’s some of the bad news:
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| They're cranking up the foster-care-to-prison pipeline in Missouri |
There was a nearly 19% increase in entries in Missouri, a state that already had a high rate of removal. The increase may be the largest of any state in 2025. It's probably is due to a big change for the worse in leadership. When Darrell Missey ran the state child welfare agency, he tried to reduce entries into care. He was pushed out and replaced by Sara Smith, who has made her fanatical take-the-child-and-run approach abundantly clear. The increase in entries in 2025 wiped out the gains Missey made in 2024.
There also was a disappointing 7.5% increase in entries in Texas; but entries there still are well below the level before groundbreaking reform legislation took effect.
And there was a nearly 17% increase in entries in Maryland, probably the result of the usual wretched response to high-profile tragedies. The fact that one of those tragedies involved a foster youth who committed suicide after being taken away and dumped in a hotel doesn’t seem to have given anyone in Maryland government second thoughts about taking away more children. That, unfortunately, is typical.
And then there’s Kansas. I’m holding off saying anything about this one, because in that state, there’s either been a giant increase in the number of children placed in foster care – or a giant data glitch. I don't know which. The state says it's the latter and the federal figures involve double-counting. I have inquiries out to federal officials, and I will update this post when I find out more.
And in case anyone in these states actually thinks this is something to celebrate, here’s one more reminder of what the research tells us about the multiple studies showing that, in typical cases, children placed in foster care typically fare worse in later life than comparably-maltreated children left in their own homes. And here’s one more reminder of all those studies showing high rates of abuse in foster care itself.
And the good news
There are several states that have shown commendable decreases in the number of children torn from everyone they know and love – but I’m not going to highlight them here. That’s because as soon as a state or county becomes known for dedicating itself to sparing children the enormous inherent trauma of placement, and the high risk of abuse in foster care, it’s like painting a target on the backs of the system’s leaders.
Those wedded to the failed take-the-child-and-run approach that has destroyed so many children’s lives bide their time until the next child abuse tragedy involving a child “known to the system” in that community. Since no jurisdiction can prevent every such tragedy, no matter how few – or how many – children they take, there’s always going to be one. (Indeed, a massive study finds no relationship between how many children are taken away and child abuse deaths.)
Then those who are sincere but mistaken, those who are just grandstanding politicians, and those who, I suspect, deep down, just don’t want poor people, especially poor people of color, to be allowed to raise their children, come out of the woodwork, fingers wagging, to claim that the tragedy supposedly shows that the system is placing family preservation ahead of child safety. Case in point: Santa Clara County. Journalists who, at best, believe this because it sounds right and it fits their own stereotypes about parents who lose children to the system or, at worst, are just Pulitzer-sniffing, rush to amplify the false claims and shut out dissent. Case in point: Santa Clara County.
So while anyone, including those who will misuse the data, is free to check the AFCARS database and do their own comparisons, I’m not inclined to assist in that process.
