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KEY
POINTS
● For decades, we were told we
have to take away more children to stop child abuse deaths. If you dare take
fewer, it was claimed, then more children will die.
● A study of 3.4 million records
over 13 years finds
it’s not true. The study concludes: “Child maltreatment mortality
rates did not appear to decrease with higher foster care entry rates or
increase with decreasing foster care entry rates.”
● In other words, huge numbers of
children, whom family police agencies rushed to tear from their homes because
supposedly it would reduce fatalities, suffered all the harm of needless foster
care for nothing.
● The very fact that this finding
will surprise many is a testament to the success of the child welfare
establishment in using “health
terrorism” to craft a false narrative.
● The finding is all-the-more
alarming in light of another recent
study, from Sweden, showing that children placed in foster care are
more than four times more likely to die by age 20 than even
comparably-maltreated children left in their own homes. The most common cause
of death: suicide; suggesting that much of the problem is related to the
inherent trauma of removal.
Consider once again the sheer size of America’s child
welfare surveillance state – and all the misery it inflicts in the name of
“child protection.”
More
than one-third of all children, and more than half of Black children, will
be forced to endure the trauma of a child abuse investigation – and make no
mistake, the trauma often is huge – before they are 18. In some cases, the
investigation is necessary – but overwhelmingly, the allegations are
false and/or confuse
poverty with neglect.
Based
on numbers from recent years, it is likely that more than 170,000 children will
be torn from everyone they know and love and consigned to the chaos of foster
care in 2026. Half a million children are likely to spend some time in foster
care this year. As anyone who remembers
the cries of children separated at the border knows, no matter who does it
and no matter what the reason, this is one of the worst traumas anyone can
inflict on a child.
In a small number of horror story cases, it’s necessary
because even this trauma is less than the trauma of remaining in a horror story
home. But nationwide in 2024, in 78% of cases, children were thrown into foster
care where there was not even an allegation of sexual abuse or any form of
physical abuse. In 60% of cases, there was not even an allegation of any form
of drug abuse – not just no allegation of running a meth lab or overdosing on
fentanyl, no allegation of any use of any drug.
The creation of this omnipresent surveillance state was not the
result of any systematic study to determine what would work. Rather, it is the
result of “health
terrorism” – that’s not my term, it comes from a group that admits to
having practiced it for decades. It’s simple enough: Take the worst horror
stories, stories of sadists and brutes who torture, rape and murder children.
Then lead us to believe that all or most cases are like that. Then demand that
ever more families be surveilled and ever more children be taken.
If you don’t agree with that approach, they say, then you
must not care if children die. Because if we don’t take more children, they
imply, that’s exactly what will happen.
In the more than five decades since this system began,
nobody ever actually stopped to check and see if this was true. Nobody asked:
If we keep taking more kids, will fewer die? Nobody asked: If we take fewer
kids, will that lead to more deaths?
Until now. And it turns out the answer is no. The “logic”
behind America’s massive child welfare surveillance state is the equivalent of
a house of cards. It just collapsed.
A
study just published in the authoritative JAMA Network Open examined 3.4
million records of children in foster care from 2010 to 2023 and 24,108
fatalities that states attributed to child abuse or neglect. The result might
best be described as a clear pattern – of no pattern. Or as the authors put it:
“Child maltreatment mortality rates did not appear to
decrease with higher foster care entry rates or increase with decreasing foster
care entry rates.”
It’s not just that correlation is not causation – there’s
not even a correlation.
The authors don’t offer any suggestions concerning why
there’s no correlation. I will suggest one possibility:
Every child abuse death is the worst imaginable tragedy.
They also are as rare as they are horrific. Even if you take the officially
reported figure for child abuse deaths in a year – 2000- and double it, then
compare it to the total
child population, that still means that in any given year 99.995% of
children will not die of child abuse. The odds of finding an impurity in Ivory
Soap are greater than the odds that a child will die of abuse or neglect in the
United States this year.
Here’s how that looks on a pie chart:
Can’t see the part with the 0.005%? That’s the point. The
line is really there (look very closely at about 3 O’Clock) but child abuse fatalities are
needles in a giant haystack.
So if you react to a horrible child abuse tragedy by making
the haystack even bigger; suddenly sweeping a whole lot more children into
foster care, the odds are extremely low that you’ll actually happen to sweep up
a child who otherwise might die. The odds are excellent that you will expose
many more children to the trauma – and worse – of needless foster care.
And that’s where another recent study comes in. This one,
from Sweden, is the latest in a
long line of studies, the others almost all from North America, which
compare what happens in typical cases – not the horror stories. Over and over,
they find that, in these typical cases, children left in their own homes fare
better on all sorts of measures even than comparably-maltreated children placed
in foster care.
The latest study found the children left in their own homes
fared better on the most important measure of all: surviving until
adulthood. The foster children were more
than four times more likely to die by age 20. The major cause of death:
suicide, which would appear to say something about the enormous trauma inherent
in removal.
So consider the implications of these two studies together:
● Taking away more children will not reduce child abuse
deaths.
● But the additional children taken will be a lot more likely
to die by age 20 than if they were left in their own homes.
And then there’s that
whole other set of studies showing horribly high rates of abuse in foster
care itself. Indeed, when child welfare agencies react to tragedies by rushing
to take away more children – foster-care panics -- the odds of a child
needlessly taken being abused in foster care itself are far greater than the
odds that the agency will happen to find a child who otherwise would die.
This also explains another study finding: The researchers
accounted for the claim that the number of child abuse deaths is understated.
The authors ran a series of simulations. They simulated under-reporting of
fatalities, assuming that as many as 75% of all deaths weren’t reported, and
found even that wouldn’t change the result.
What do we do instead?
This doesn’t mean we give up. The only acceptable goal for
child abuse fatalities is zero; we strive for it even as we know our reach
always will exceed our grasp. But bringing us closer to that goal requires
rejecting the false narrative of health terrorism that’s only led us farther
from it.
Instead, we start with a laser focus on ameliorating the
worst effects of poverty. Study
after study finds even small amounts of cash can go a long way. And not just in curbing “neglect.” Remember
the COVID pandemic when the health terrorists predicted a “pandemic
of child abuse” because all those overwhelmingly middle-class,
disproportionately white professionals didn’t have their eyes on children who
are neither? Instead, the family police were forced to step back,
community-based, community-run mutual aid organizations stepped up, and the
federal government stepped in with no-strings-attached cash. The result, even
severe child abuse declined.
Yes, but what about when the problem isn’t poverty “alone”?
Then the solution often still is money – so poor families can buy the help they
need with those other problems, the same way middle-class families do, instead
of forcing their children to endure the trauma of being confiscated by the
state.
Other solutions involve making the haystack smaller instead
of bigger: These include replacing mandatory reporting with permissive
reporting, leaving professionals free to exercise their professional judgments
instead of flooding the system with false reports, and narrowing definitions of
neglect, which often are definitions of poverty.
All of this needs to be enforced – and that requires
high-quality legal representation for families from the moment the family
police are at the door. No, it’s not to get “bad parents” off; it’s to provide
alternatives to the cookie-cutter “service plans” often churned out by family
police agencies. It’s
been proven to reduce foster care with no compromise of safety.
More details concerning these and other solutions can be
found in the solutions section at www.nccpr.org
But here’s step one: The health terrorists misled us for
decades. Don’t let them do it again.